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<article-title>Determining Confidence When Integrating Contributions from Multiple Agents</article-title>
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<author><a href="mailto:raphen@gmail.com"><name>Raphen Becker</name></a></author>
<aff>Department of Computer Science <br/>University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, MA 01002</aff>

<author><a href="mailto:corkill@cs.umass.edu"><name>Daniel D. Corkill</name></a></author>
<aff>Department of Computer Science <br/>University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, MA 01002</aff>
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<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>Integrating contributions received from other agents is an
essential activity in multi-agent systems (MASs). Not only
must related contributions be integrated together, but the
confidence in each integrated contribution must be determined.
In this paper we look specifically at the issue of
confidence determination and its effect on developing "principled,"
highly collaborating MASs. Confidence determination
is often masked by ad hoc contribution-integration
techniques, viewed as being addressed by agent trust and
reputation models, or simply assumed away. We present
a domain-independent analysis model that can be used to
measure the sensitivity of a collaborative problem-solving
system to potentially incorrect confidence-integration assumptions.
In analyses performed using our model, we focus
on the typical assumption of independence among contributions
and the effect that unaccounted-for dependencies have
on the expected error in the confidence that the answers
produced by the MAS are correct. We then demonstrate
how the analysis model can be used to determine confidence
bounds on integrated contributions and to identify where efforts
to improve contribution-dependency estimates lead to
the greatest improvement in solution-confidence accuracy.</p>
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